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title: "2026-04-18" type: daily slug: daily/2026-04-18 date: 2026-04-18

Saturday 2026-04-18

Weekend reading + thinking session. Mostly catching up on portfolio metrics dashboards.

A few things landed for me this week:

The acme-example metrics keep getting stronger across every cohort I look at. alice-example is going to crush her year-end target. I'd put the over/under on a meaningful ARR milestone by year-end at about 75/25 in favor. That's higher conviction than my baseline geography prior would suggest, and I'm aware of that.

widget-co is the opposite story. The retention curve is flattening and the customer-support ticket volume is way up. I think they have 2 quarters of runway before they're forced into an emergency raise. Bob hasn't acknowledged this publicly yet but the signal is loud.

fund-b's portfolio update came in. Two of the named companies look weak. I expect at least one fold by Q3.

Random thing I'm tracking: the IPO window for vertical-SaaS reopens by Q2 2027. Not a prediction I'm willing to put a number on yet — call it ~0.5 — but I want to see if I'm right.