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title: "2026-04-15" type: daily slug: daily/2026-04-15 date: 2026-04-15

Wednesday 2026-04-15

Coffee with alice-example this morning. She's pushing hard on the acme-example pricing change — wants to move enterprise tier 40% by end of quarter. I think that's too aggressive. The data doesn't support it yet and we'd be optimizing on noise.

Meeting with the widget-co team in the afternoon. They're talking about international expansion in 2027. I'm skeptical — their unit economics in the home market aren't where they need to be, and international expansion right now would compound the burn problem. I told them so. We'll see if they listen.

Late afternoon journal: I keep coming back to the same pattern. Founders who pivot late tend to do better than founders who pivot early, in this batch at least. Maybe it's selection bias — only the founders with deep customer instinct survive long enough to pivot late. Either way, it's a heuristic I'm tracking.

One more bet I want to log: I think the next 12 months will see at least two of the fund-b portfolio companies fold. Their thesis hasn't worked out and the LPs are getting restless. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.

Random small prediction: the AI conference circuit will quiet down by late 2026 as the actual revenue numbers start coming in. People are going to start asking hard questions about retention.